Class B Market Share, Sales and Shipments

[markopolo]

Thanks for the update. 2020 will be interesting for sure.

Will Rapido/Roadtrek get in the top three?

Or will it end up like this:
#1 Winnebago
#2 Thor / Airstream / Hymer USA
#3 Forest River / Coachmen


Should be a nice variety of Class B's to choose from.

[mumkin]

Originally Posted by markopolo

Will Rapido/Roadtrek get in the top three?

I suspect not for some years, if ever. Winnebago, Thor, and Forest River are large organizations with deep pockets. Roadtrek, Inc. is now closer to the level of PW. But I don't consider that a bad thing. I hope that they choose to go for quality rather than quantity. We don't need any more slapped together Class Bs. What we need... desperately... is more high quality workmanship like we used to see from smaller companies like GWV, LTV, PW, and the old Roadtrek before the big recession.

But without the obscenely high price tag of Advanced...

[rockymtnb]

RVIA reports that first quarter 2020 Class B shipments totaled 1232 units, a significant (46.3%) recovery from last year when Hymer/Roadtrek's shutdown pushed quarterly shipments down to 842 units, the lowest in years.

A more valid comparison might be to trend first quarter output over the last five years.

Q1 Class B unit production:
2016 - 905
2017 - 1235
2018 - 1306
2019 - 842
2020 - 1232

Given that most manufacturers where shuttered the last couple weeks of March, about 10% of the production quarter, this shows a steady but slow improvement the last few years.

Although still the smallest segment of the Motorhome market Class B's are actually trending more positively than their larger Class A and C brethren. Big Class A units have trended downward from 6000+ to 3400 units during the same time period, and Class C's have declined from 9000+ to 5400 units currently.

[rockymtnb]

RVIA reports that first half 2020 Class B shipments totaled 2515 units, a 41% increase over last year but still below the 2018 peak of 2977 units.

However Covid-19 significantly impacted production this spring with segment leader Winnebago Industries shut down for six weeks from late March to early May. Weekly production this year generated about 125 units/wk compared to 115 unit/wk in 2018. If that rate even slightly increases for Covid driven buyers this year may well set a new record for total Class B production.

Half Year Class B prod:
2016 - 1989 units
2017 - 2765 units
2018 - 2977 units
2019 - 1799 units
2020 - 2515 units


Unfortunately SSI (Statistical Surveys Inc.) no longer releases a public version of Class B sales data by manufacturer. Presumably Winnebago will continue its large market share lead with Thor and Forest River battling for 2nd and 3rd place. But it would be nice to see that market share data.

[rowiebowie]

Thanks for the update. I assume the 2019 decline was due to Roadtredk. Funny that they are still below prior years with so many new builders entering hte market and some pent-up demand from 2019.

[rockymtnb]

Some interesting news as SSI has released preliminary Class B market share data for June:

SSI Top 3 Market Share sales breakdown June 2020:

Winnebago Industries Inc. 51.4% market share.
Thor: 11.4% market share.
Pleasure-Way: 10.2% market share.

These are preliminary because the states of Arizona, Colorado, Maryland, Missouri, Oregon and Vermont had not yet reported registrations. Also SSI market share data in recent years has been cumulative - so June market share would represent the first six months market share. With Coronavirus reporting challenges it's unclear which months are incorporated in these June totals.

One clear take-away is that Winnebago continues to dominate the Class B market with new Solis models and Revel updates powering their increased share.


edit: It's good to see SSI data released again after a 5 month hiatus!

[bobojay]

Glad to see Pleasure way get in there

[Rocinante]

Thanks for posting this. It will be interesting to see what happens in the US as current economic realities kick in. We're shopping right now, but we've decided to be patient instead of giving up on finding used, placing an order at a premium price, and then getting in line.

Over the next 6-9 months, we suspect that some people who quickly jumped into an RV because they couldn't vacation in the usual way will be looking at their monthly payments, storage costs, rent / mortgage payments, car payments, etc., and will make economic decisions that result in a boost of availability for gently used (or barely used) RVs.

We also suspect that folks who placed refundable deposits on units the dealer had already ordered may find themselves in a similar economic vise that causes them to cancel that deal to get their deposit back and avoid taking on the financial burden.

Lastly, we suspect that some folks who custom-ordered a vehicle and settled down for that 6-month wait may experience the same economic pressure, which could cause them to decide the economic pain of cancelling an order is smaller than the pain of taking delivery.

So, we're sitting back and waiting, while paying close attention to listings for gently-used and new Class-B RV's, ready to buy when the right opportunity comes by. If we're wrong, our wait is a little longer. If we're right, we'll find the unit we want with better availability at a slightly more attractive price.

[rowiebowie]

When I bought used at the end of '2017, the market was at peak price. In my mind, I paid too much, but considered it the price of entry. And every year since then, we've reached new peak prices.

[Rocinante]

Originally Posted by rowiebowie

When I bought used at the end of '2017, the market was at peak price. In my mind, I paid too much, but considered it the price of entry. And every year since then, we've reached new peak prices.

I have no doubt that over time peak prices will increase. We're just looking for a brief spike in availability and a concomitant softening, or at least leveling, in price. Honestly, though, at the moment availability is our biggest issue. I just can't see placing an order and waiting, already committed with non-refundable money on the table, when I can instead just wait and see for a while.

[rockymtnb]

Originally Posted by Rocinante

I just can't see placing an order and waiting, already committed with non-refundable money on the table, when I can instead just wait and see for a while.

I think that makes sense for standard factory units purchased via dealers. The recent Covid buying surge hasn't increased factory MSRPs significantly. Those pricing bumps are from dealers trimming or removing discounts.

But if you want a custom or factory direct unit such as Safari Condo, Outside Van, or Sportsmobile those factory prices haven't increased noticeably. And they already had significant lead times of 12-15 months so they don't seem to appeal to the current Covid surge buyers anyway. If you want one of those I would suggest just getting your build order in now, since any delays will just push your delivery date out further.

[rockymtnb]

SSI Class B market share data for July 2020.

SSI Top 3 Market Share sales breakdown:

Winnebago Industries Inc. 51.2% market share.
Thor: 11.5% market share.
Forest River: 11.0% market share.

Since SSI market share is determined from cumulative YTD registration data these 'July' figures presumably represent the first seven month totals for 2020. As such, mid-year and later percentage shares don't tend to vary much, although Forest River edged out Pleasure Way for the number 3 spot.

PW had an early season bump from their CanaDream contract to build rental vans. Those rental fleet sales tend to concentrate in the first few months of the year.

[rockymtnb]

RVIA reports that during the first three quarters of 2020 Class B shipments totaled 4671 units. This represents a 48.2% increase over the same period last year, but perhaps more importantly ekes out a 4.6% gain over the previous record of 4465 units in 2018.

Q1-Q3 Class B Production:
2016 - 3119 units
2017 - 4034 units
2018 - 4465 units
2019 - 3152 units
2020 - 4671 units

The fact that 2020 set a new record to date despite losing a month and a half to Coronavirus shutdowns in mid spring is impressive. Despite ongoing RV component shortages a new Class B annual production record seems likely.

[markopolo]

Rocky - do you get to see any info on the particular models that are included in the Class B productions stats? If so, are there any models in there that might be considered to be a B+ or C?

Assuming it's all Class B's then the production numbers look great!

[rowiebowie]

Originally Posted by rockymtnb

RVIA reports that during the first three quarters of 2020 Class B shipments totaled 4671 units. This represents a 48.2% increase over the same period last year, but perhaps more importantly ekes out a 4.6% gain over the previous record of 4465 units in 2018.

Q1-Q3 Class B Production:
2016 - 3119 units
2017 - 4034 units
2018 - 4465 units
2019 - 3152 units
2020 - 4671 units

The fact that 2020 set a new record to date despite losing a month and a half to Coronavirus shutdowns in mid spring is impressive. Despite ongoing RV component shortages a new Class B annual production record seems likely.

Thanks Rocky. Keep the updates coming.

[rockymtnb]

Originally Posted by markopolo

Rocky - do you get to see any info on the particular models that are included in the Class B productions stats? If so, are there any models in there that might be considered to be a B+ or C?

That's a great question since some manufacturers, including Thor and Phoenix, label their Transit cutaway chassis RVs under the "B Plus" moniker. Whereas Winnebago, presumably more correctly, lists their new EKKO semi-integrated style unit in the Class C category despite being more compact than either of the above.

Checking with RVIA it turns out they categorize all cutaway based RVs as Class C. Only units built on a complete and enclosed manufactured van are categorized in Class B totals.

A big thank you to Matt Hummel of RVIA's Research & Data division for a quick and concise answer to this question.

[markopolo]

Thanks for looking into it.

It's great news whether looking to buy a new coach now or hoping to buy a previously owned unit in a few years. It seems that it's not only the number produced but also an increased variety of coaches out there.

[rockymtnb]

SSI Class B market share report for September 2020.

SSI Top 3 Market Share sales breakdown:

Winnebago Industries Inc. 54.8% market share.
Thor: 14.1% market share.
Forest River: 10.9% market share.

Since SSI market share data is usually reported cumulatively (first nine months) it's a bit surprising to see significant jumps for Winnebago and Thor. However these are retail sales results and WGO and Thor may have simply had more units available as buyers drained the supply pipeline over the summer and early fall.

[markopolo]

So, the top three have 79.1%. Pleasure Way must be close to 10% and is maybe in 4th place. I wonder which other company made it into the top 5.

[rockymtnb]

November wholesale shipment data are not normally particularly newsworthy. However, RVIA has reported that November Class B cumulative shipments have already hit 6,426 units, shattering the previous annual record of 5,881 units set in 2018.

Annual Class B shipments for 2020 entire year seem almost certainly destined to exceed 7000 units. That would create an all-time high by quite a margin.