Class B Market Share, Sales and Shipments - Page 37

rockymtnb · 05-12-2019, 09:01 PM

SSI has released 2019 first quarter Class B registration data (which closely follows retail sales) with 9.3% growth over the first quarter last year. That's in contrast to Q1 wholesale shipments that declined 35.5% compared to last year, so the retail impacts of Erwin Hymer/Roadtrek's shutdown will likely dribble in over the next few quarters.

RVIA Wholesale Class B shipments (as previously reported) down 35.5% to 842 units in Q1:

https://www.rvia.org/news-insights/r...nts-march-2019

SSI Class B sales registrations continue to climb with 9.3% growth:

https://www.rvbusiness.com/blog/ssi-...ee-months.html

SSI Market share breakdown:

Winnebago Industries Inc. 41.7% market share.
Erwin Hymer / Roadtrek zombie: 27% market share.
Forest River 10.2% market share.

It will be interesting to see how Forest River (Coachmen) versus Thor (Airstream) sales figures shake out over the next few months.

booster · 05-13-2019, 01:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rockymtnb

SSI has released 2019 first quarter Class B registration data (which closely follows retail sales) with 9.3% growth over the first quarter last year. That's in contrast to Q1 wholesale shipments that declined 35.5% compared to last year, so the retail impacts of Erwin Hymer/Roadtrek's shutdown will likely dribble in over the next few quarters.

I wonder if some of the past high wholesale shipment numbers for Hymer are related to the comments in the closing of Hymer about falsified VIN numbers and sales? If so they may not show up as registrations or retail sales.

bobojay · 05-13-2019, 01:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by booster

I wonder if some of the past high wholesale shipment numbers for Hymer are related to the comments in the closing of Hymer about falsified VIN numbers and sales? If so they may not show up as registrations or retail sales.

Good point...

markopolo · 05-13-2019, 02:52 PM

It's interesting to see that there is could be several months worth of supply of new EHGNA units still sitting on dealer lots.

I picked one site - RV Trader - https://tinyurl.com/y3oo5548

There are some Jeeps mixed in unfortunately but still there could be over 300 new EHGNA Class B units listed on RV Trader alone.

Edit: total units as of today's date at the time I created the link is 371 (including jeeps etc.) The link should continue to work so we should be able to see how the total changes in the coming months.

booster · 05-13-2019, 03:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by markopolo

It's interesting to see that there is could be several months worth of supply of new EHGNA units still sitting on dealer lots.

I picked one site - RV Trader - https://tinyurl.com/y3oo5548

There are some Jeeps mixed in unfortunately but still there could be over 300 new EHGNA Class B units listed on RV Trader alone.

That is interesting if there really are that many still sitting around.

It was long ago when we were looking for a van, I did find that on sites like RVtrader that when you went to find the particular van at a dealer they were just listed as ones that were "on allocation" from the various factories and not actually made or delivered yet. I have no idea if this is still common or not, as that was in 2006/2008 timeframe.

RossWilliams · 05-13-2019, 06:43 PM

This link at RV Trader brings up 198 2019 Roadtrek and Hymers being available new, including trailers. There are 118 Roadtreks, the rest are Hymers.

markopolo · 06-02-2019, 07:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by markopolo

It's interesting to see that there is could be several months worth of supply of new EHGNA units still sitting on dealer lots.

I picked one site - RV Trader - https://tinyurl.com/y3oo5548

There are some Jeeps mixed in unfortunately but still there could be over 300 new EHGNA Class B units listed on RV Trader alone.

Edit: total units as of today's date (May 13) at the time I created the link is 371 (including jeeps etc.) The link should continue to work so we should be able to see how the total changes in the coming months.

Total as of June 2 is down to 332. It should continue to trend down.

---------------------

Shipments from current Class B Van manufacturers are down for April. 53.6% down compared to last April - https://www.rvia.org/system/files/me...Apr-19_Sum.pdf -

RVIA April 2019.JPG

rowiebowie · 06-02-2019, 08:11 PM

Pretty shocking declines. While the class b market is probably impacted by Roadtrek/Hymer troubles, what would explain the towables and class A & C declines? Customers aged out of the market? Foretelling of impending economic problems?

Davydd · 06-02-2019, 08:11 PM

RV sales are down. The canary in the cage?

RossWilliams · 06-03-2019, 12:19 AM

Its important to recognize, these are shipments, not sales. Given the number of 2018 "new" units that appear to be for sale, it may be last years numbers were inflated by over-production which lead to reductions in shipping this year as they needed to clear existing inventory. Sales or registration figures would give you a more accurate picture of the current retail market for RV's.

rockymtnb · 08-12-2019, 10:59 PM

2019 first half Class B market data are out. These are cumulative figures and represent the first six months of 2019.

SSI: 2019 Class B sales (registrations) up 5.9%
https://rvbusiness.com/ssi-class-b-s...st-six-months/

RVIA: 2019 Class B wholesale shipments down 40.2% to 1799 units:
https://www.rvia.org/news-insights/r...ents-june-2019

These represent Year-over-Year differences between 2018 and 2019 first half and clearly show the impact of Roadtrek / Erwin Hymer's North American demise on wholesale production. However actual retail sales and registrations have tapered off more slowly and actually grew slightly versus 2018.

Market share breakdown for first half 2019 according to SSI was:

Winnebago Industries Inc. 40.5% market share.
Erwin Hymer Group North America 23.8% market share.
Forest River Inc. 13.9% market share.

Coachmen (Forest River) continues to make strong sales gains into the Class B market, having pushed Thor Industries (Airstream) out of third place for most of 2019. With Thor introducing their Sequence van into the lower price segment of the Class B market this could be an interesting race for the second half of 2019.

Davydd · 08-13-2019, 01:14 PM

Registrations up 5.7% and wholesale shipments down 40.2%? I'm not sure how to interpret that other than unsold inventory left over from 2018.

There are several articles out there blaming it on tariffs to a coming recession. Baby Boomers entering the market hasn't run out yet and there is a lot of #vanlife activity that isn't reported (I think) in these figures. Demise of Roadtrek may play a part in it but I would think people would just shop elsewhere. The slowness of delivery of Mercedes Benz Sprinters may have an impact, but still the whole RV industry is down 20.3% and Class B is but a blip. In the Great Recession 12 or so years ago RV sales were one of the canaries in the cage before it officially happened. That's ominous.

I like changing lifestyles and interest better like hunting and fishing is down than a recession. That would ease up on campground availability for the rest of us RVers.

RossWilliams · 08-13-2019, 02:28 PM

" I'm not sure how to interpret that other than unsold inventory left over from 2018. "

Its six months of data in a seasonal industry. There may well be a normal delay in the pipeline where a lot more units are shipped than sold the first six months of the year. The units sold are likely almost all going to have been shipped the previous year. Shipments are down because Roadtrek isn't shipping units. Winter sales aren't down because there are still winter customers buying. Although I would think winter sales are a small part of the overall business, so that might not tell you much about the health of the industry.

markopolo · 08-13-2019, 06:15 PM

From the link in post 724
New (not used) EHGNA units on RV trader:

May 13: 371
June 2: 332
Aug 13: 260

It's not precise info for sure but gives an idea of the pace of sales from that one site. Likely many more months of EHGNA unit sales still to come.

Davydd · 08-13-2019, 06:24 PM

The health of the industry is reflected in all the RV types. All down.

The numbers are in direct comparison with the first 6 months of 2018 which would be by your reasoning a wash. If it is a seasonal industry, the season to buy was in late winter and spring when they had to RV shows and interest to get started RVing. There are no rosey numbers or an adjustment or an explanation to believe otherwise, IMO. Roadtrek maybe could have accounted for half the -40.2% of Class Bs which would put it only in line with the industry -20.3%. At this point...unhealthy.

Bud · 08-29-2019, 10:46 PM

Another Canary?

https://www.businessinsider.com/truc...tential-2019-8

Bud

rockymtnb · 11-21-2019, 10:45 PM

2019 Q1 thru Q3 Class B market data are out. These are cumulative figures and represent the first nine months of 2019 versus 2018.

SSI: 2019 Class B sales (registrations) up very slightly at 1.5%

https://rvbusiness.com/ssi-class-b-m...n-sept-up-1-5/

This represents a continued retail sales slowdown compared to the first two quarters this year that grew at 9.3% and 5.9% respectively.

RVIA: 2019 Class B wholesale shipments down 29.4% to 3152 units:

https://www.rvia.org/news-insights/r...september-2019

Wholesale Class B shipments, while still down from 2018 actually recovered a bit compared to earlier this year when the combination of Roadtrek/Hymer bankruptcy and Sprinter chassis shortages pushed production down 40.2%

Market share breakdown for first three quarters 2019 according to SSI was:

Winnebago Industries Inc. 42.9% market share.
Erwin Hymer Group North America 21.3% market share.
Forest River Inc. 12.5% market share.

SSI market share is based on retail sales and therefore includes closeout sales of Roadtrek Erwin Hymer inventory.

markopolo · 11-22-2019, 12:55 AM

Kind of amazing that Hymer might end up in 2nd place for the year despite no production for 10 (or more?) months.

mumkin · 11-22-2019, 01:29 AM

Pretty much the only production in 2019 by EHGNA was the completion of rigs remaining on the line when the gates were lock last February. I too am surprised that sales of remaining inventories was still over 20%.

Tells Rapido that their demand is still there. I see a good opportunity for them to add their Transit model... AND... a return of Westalia.

rockymtnb · 02-11-2020, 08:58 PM

Full year 2019 Class B market data are now available.

SSI: 2019 Class B sales (registrations) were up slightly for the year at 5.2%

https://rvbusiness.com/ssi-class-b-m...2-during-2019/

RVIA: 2019 Class B wholesale shipments down 28.7% at 4248 units:

https://www.rvia.org/system/files/me...t%20Report.pdf

SSI Top 3 Market Share sales breakdown:

Winnebago Industries Inc. 44.7% market share.
Erwin Hymer Group North America 20.0% market share.
Forest River: 11.0% market share.

Note these figures are cumulative throughout the year. Market share for remaining EHGNA units have tapered down through the year and likely will have minor impact once the 2020 figures reset in January.

Wholesale manufacturing shipments where down more than 35% at the beginning of the year due to the EHGNA shutdown but slowly began to recover and presumably will continue to accelerate into 2020.

Top three market share totaled 74.7% of all Class B production for 2019. Winnebago continued to grow its share by selling nearly half of all Class B units sold this year. Forest River beat out Thor Industries for third position this year but that may well change with new Thor Sequence and Tellaro units hitting the market in full force for 2020.

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