Class B Market Share, Sales and Shipments

[InterBlog]

I have to wonder what SpaceX is doing there. Lots and lots of aeronautical expertise here in Clear Lake Texas where our public schools are excellent and our current median home price is $216,171 (per Zillow).

[rockymtnb]

Q2 2018 Class B market data are out. These are cumulative figures and thus represent the first six months for 2018.

SSI: 2018 Class B sales (registrations) up 32.8%
SSI: Class B Coach Sales Soar 32.8% for 6 Months | RV Business

RVIA: 2018 Class B wholesale shipments up 7.7% to 2977 units:
https://www.rvia.org/system/files/me...olidated_0.pdf

Market share breakdown for first half 2018 according to SSI was:

Winnebago Industries Inc. 36.8% market share.
Erwin Hymer Group North America 30.9% market share.
Thor Industries Inc. 11.6% market share.

There continues to be a significant unit growth discrepancy between sales (32.8%) and wholesale shipments (7.7%) data. Whether that is due to a backlog of inventoried units finally being sold (Hymer perhaps?) or some other wholesale to retail sales discrepancy remains to be seen.

[rowiebowie]

Originally Posted by rockymtnb

Q2 2018 Class B market data are out. These are cumulative figures and thus represent the first six months for 2018.

SSI: 2018 Class B sales (registrations) up 32.8%
SSI: Class B Coach Sales Soar 32.8% for 6 Months | RV Business

RVIA: 2018 Class B wholesale shipments up 7.7% to 2977 units:
https://www.rvia.org/system/files/me...olidated_0.pdf

Market share breakdown for first half 2018 according to SSI was:

Winnebago Industries Inc. 36.8% market share.
Erwin Hymer Group North America 30.9% market share.
Thor Industries Inc. 11.6% market share.

There continues to be a significant unit growth discrepancy between sales (32.8%) and wholesale shipments (7.7%) data. Whether that is due to a backlog of inventoried units finally being sold (Hymer perhaps?) or some other wholesale to retail sales discrepancy remains to be seen.

Interesting, thanks for the update.

Just proves the concern I had when we decided to get into rv'ing last year. Even though we bought used, we paid "top of the market" prices. When we finally went traveling, we found many parks full, or at least they said the numerous empty slots were "reserved". And even though we found helpful "Park Hosts" that helped us find a slot, that was off-season before labor day.

Overall RV sales are following the same trend as class B's, so it looks like the prices, build quality, and park congestion will only get worst. Too bad I wasn't able to retire a decade sooner.

Still, on a 13 day round trip in May from the South Texas Coast to Yellowstone, we encountered only a handful of class B's.

[rockymtnb]

Q3 2018 Class B market data are out. These are cumulative figures and represent the first nine months of 2018.

SSI: 2018 Class B sales (registrations) up 28.5%
SSI: 'B' Sales Continue Rise; Up 28.5% in Sept. | RV Business

RVIA: 2018 Class B wholesale shipments up 10.7% to 4465 units:
https://www.rvia.org/system/files/me...18_Summary.pdf

Market share breakdown for the first nine months of 2018 according to SSI was:

Winnebago Industries Inc. 38.8% market share.
Erwin Hymer Group North America 29.9% market share.
Thor Industries Inc. 11.0% market share.

A couple items of note:

1) Winnebago market share continues to increase while ERwin Hymer North America's relative share declines. Once Thor Industries completes their acquisition of Erwin Hymer in 2019 it will be a very close race, with Thor's potential combined share slightly topping Winnebago at the moment but on a downward trend. Meanwhile Winnebago's share continues to trend upward.

2) Class B Vans were the only wholesale motorized RV segment to grow in 2018 according to RVIA, with 10.7% growth in shipments while Class A declined 2.3% and Class C units declined 7.3%.

[markopolo]

Thanks for the update.


It will be interesting to see what happens. Will some of the Hymer brands or models get dropped? Will Airstream vans be promoted as the top of the line? We'll see soon enough I guess.

[avanti]

Originally Posted by rockymtnb

Class B Vans were the only wholesale motorized RV segment to grow in 2018 according to RVIA, with 10.7% growth in shipments while Class A declined 2.3% and Class C units declined 7.3%.

Maybe someday the market share of B-vans will creep up to more than negligible.

[rockymtnb]

Full year 2018 Class B market data are now available.

SSI: 2018 Class B sales (registrations) up 28.3%
https://www.rvbusiness.com/blog/ssi-...3-in-2018.html

RVIA: 2018 Class B wholesale shipments up 12.0% to 5881 units:
https://www.rvia.org/system/files/me...Dec-18_Sum.pdf

Market share breakdown for 2018 according to SSI:

Winnebago Industries Inc. 40.0% market share.
Erwin Hymer Group North America 28.8% market share.
Thor Industries Inc. 10.8% market share.

A few comments:

The growth discrepancy between sales (28.3%) and wholesale shipments (12.0%) continues although it narrowed somewhat during the year. Whether RVIA reported wholesale shipments might include false Roadtrek/EHGNA VIN numbers is unclear. Actual SSI vehicle sales registrations presumably would not be corrupted non-existent vehicle VINs.

Class B sales, although still relatively small, have been the bright spot in the RV industry for growth rate. By comparison Class A registrations slipped 2.7% while wholesale shipments dropped 33.7%. Class C registrations showed zero growth but wholesale shipments fell 37.3%.

The shutdown and subsequent bankruptcy proceedings of Erwin Hymer Group NA will certainly impact 2019 shipments and registrations. It will be interesting to see whether other manufacturers can fill some of that gap or a resurrected Roadtrek could recover some market share.

[Davydd]

I’m seeing a lot of Winnebago Travatos here in the southwest and mostly much older Roadtreks. I’m at Organ Pipe Cactus NM CG right now. Lots of Bs more than back east and north but Airstream trailers still number more in this 200 campsite CG. Class As, Class Cs and large trailers dominate and this is a transient CG not a stay over winter and park it CG.

[SteveJ]

Originally Posted by Davydd

I’m seeing a lot of Winnebago Travatos here in the southwest and mostly much older Roadtreks. I’m at Organ Pipe Cactus NM CG right now. Lots of Bs more than back east and north but Airstream trailers still number more in this 200 campsite CG. Class As, Class Cs and large trailers dominate and this is a transient CG not a stay over winter and park it CG.

Agreed. We were there for one night last Saturday.

On TDY near Kearny AZ at the free campground leaving tomorrow for Tombstone.

[blueridgetraveler]

I was in the market and very excited by some of the Hymer/Roadtrek offerings in 2018. Now it looks like limited supply, higher prices and I will probably wait a few years since it is not a good time to be a consumer with 30% of the competition now eliminated in the past few month. To make matters worse, I have to question used models that may be newer but have no manufacturer warranty available anymore and possibly hard to find or more expensive parts.

[mumkin]

Originally Posted by blueridgetraveler

I was in the market and very excited by some of the Hymer/Roadtrek offerings in 2018. Now it looks like limited supply, higher prices and I will probably wait a few years since it is not a good time to be a consumer with 30% of the competition now eliminated in the past few month. To make matters worse, I have to question used models that may be newer but have no manufacturer warranty available anymore and possibly hard to find or more expensive parts.

Actually you can pick up a Roadtrek or Hymer from a dealer for 30-40% off in many places right now. Dealers are trying to cut their losses. You can call it a fire sale, but they are selling like hot cakes. (to mix metaphors)

The fact is that few used RVs have any warranty at all after the first or second year. (Winnebagos have one year - except for lithium models) You still have the platform warranty. The vast majority of parts used for EHGNA are the standard stuff. The companies that makes the lithium batteries (3 years) and underhood generators (2 years) are honoring their warranties for EHGNA owners. Things like cabinetry and ground effects on the older models will require a craftsman to recreate. A common issue on the older RVs.

The fact that Class Bs are the bright spot in the industry suggests that it is worthwhile for someone to pick up the pieces in Kitchner.

[gregmchugh]

Originally Posted by mumkin

Actually you can pick up a Roadtrek or Hymer from a dealer for 30-40% off in many places right now. Dealers are trying to cut their losses. You can call it a fire sale, but they are selling like hot cakes. (to mix metaphors)

The fact is that few used RVs have any warranty at all after the first or second year. (Winnebagos have one year - except for lithium models) You still have the platform warranty. The vast majority of parts used for EHGNA are the standard stuff. The companies that makes the lithium batteries (3 years) and underhood generators (2 years) are honoring their warranties for EHGNA owners. Things like cabinetry and ground effects on the older models will require a craftsman to recreate. A common issue on the older RVs.

The fact that Class Bs are the bright spot in the industry suggests that it is worthwhile for someone to pick up the pieces in Kitchner.

Nations is honoring the warranty for the aux alternator but the latest info is that K2 will not cover any warranty on the Ecotreks already installed in vans but will provide a 3 year warranty on any Ecotreks they sell themselves. Info yesterday was that a replacement Ecotrek was quoted at $900 by a dealer including labor with the old Ecotrek sent in to K2 and the replacement from K2 with the 3 year warranty. Not real clear if the replacements are completely new or refurbished but they do have a 3 year warranty.

[markopolo]

The affects of no production from Hymer and Roadtrek are starting to show in the stats:

https://www.rvia.org/system/files/me...Feb-19_Sum.pdf

Class B shipments down -32.6% if comparing Feb '18 to Feb '19 shipments.

It'll take longer for the retail registration stats to decline as Hymer & Roadtrek units on dealer lots continue to be sold.

[markopolo]

https://www.rvbusiness.com/blog/ssi-...-2-months.html

Statistical Surveys Inc. (SSI) reported that Winnebago Industries Inc. led the segment through February with a 42.9% market share followed by Erwin Hymer Group North America (25.8%) and Forest River Inc. (10.4%).

Winnebago looks to be doing well with almost 43% of the market. EHGNA numbers will continue to drop as remaining dealer inventory is sold off.

Forest River Inc. is in 3rd place. That must be for Coachmen units - Class B Motorhomes | Coachmen RV - Manufacturer of Travel Trailers - Fifth Wheels - Tent Campers - Motorhomes .

42.9 + 25.8 + 10.4 = 79.1% - My guess is that Thor and Pleasure Way are each just behind Forest River in market share.

[rockymtnb]

RVIA reports first quarter 2019 Class B wholesale shipments at 842 units, a decline of 35.5% compared to last years 1306 for the same time period. This percentage drop roughly corresponds to removing Roadtrek/Erwin Hymer NA from the mix plus missing Thor shipments while Airstream retools for the new V30 Sprinter chassis.

https://www.rvia.org/news-insights/r...nts-march-2019

March monthly shipments were down even more dramatically with 65.9% drop to 170 units versus 498 shipped last year. That's a bigger drop than just Roadtrek / EHGNA would justify but monthly figures do tend to jump around. Quarterly and annual data generally smooths out a bit to reveal longer term trends.

I'll update the standard quarterly sales posting when market share registration data are released by SSI next month.

[avanti]

Originally Posted by rockymtnb

RVIA reports first quarter 2019 Class B wholesale shipmentS at 842 units, a decline of 35.5% compared to last years 1306 for the same time period. This percentage drop roughly corresponds to removing Roadtrek/Erwin Hymer NA from the mix plus missing Thor shipments while Airstream retools for the new V30 Sprinter chassis.[INDENT] https://www.rvia.org/news-insights/r...nts-march-2019

Interesting.
Does this imply that the market is constrained by supply rather than demand? Otherwise, one would think that the potential RT/Airstream purchasers would just move on to some other brand.

[GeorgeRa]

Hymer/Roadtrek provided lower cost options which are not served by Airstream, so this market could be price limited, perhaps young families price limits.

[booster]

Originally Posted by avanti

Interesting.
Does this imply that the market is constrained by supply rather than demand? Otherwise, one would think that the potential RT/Airstream purchasers would just move on to some other brand.

Good question. Local class b dealer has 11 new units of various brands on the lot, which is fairly typical to maybe a touch low.

[RossWilliams]

The numbers for shipments are down, but the link suggests "sales aren't.

"The retail RV market is robust with Statistical Surveys, Inc. reporting that retail RV registrations through February were the second-best on company record, only behind last year."

Here is a link to an article on the distinction:

[booster]

I don't think anyone will really know what the market is doing or going to do until balance happens over some time. The shipments collapsed when Hymer stopped producing, but the sales of Hymer's may actually have increased at the same time with closeout deals. Until the market backfills any inventory backlog from the Hymer elimination, I think it will continue to look funny and odd when trying to compare shipments and sales. When Roadtrek comes back online and is producing, it probably won't be much of a shock to the market as they will phase it pretty slowly, I would guess.