Class B Market Share, Sales and Shipments

[wincrasher]

Originally Posted by Davydd

"Active" in carrying paddle boards and bikes on the weekend or "active' in being out on the road for extended periods? That Hymer Aktiv could never meet my needs, comfort and expectations for extended touring.

I think there is a fairly large segment of the older demographic that is in denial about how "active" they are. The accouterments of active pastimes like biking, hiking and paddling still appeal to them, but how often they do such things is debatable.

I'd agree that luxury is important to this group. So coupling the "luxury" aspects with the "active" aspects could be a winning combination.

It would probably be pretty goofy to combine these things on a Sprinter based RV, but not so crazy on the Promaster or the Transit. WGO is pointing the way with the new Paseo, but it has a ways to go on the luxury front. I highly doubt we'll see ladders and roof racks on their Era line.

[Marley]

I have a new decision making tool: I ask myself "Fantasy or Reality"?
Fantasy is being able to dirtbike, ski, sled, hike, boat etc like I'm 20 years younger.
Reality is ... I'm not 20 years younger.

[droadrunner]

I recently toured the Airstream factory in Jackson Center OH. They were prroducing 18 new class B's weekly (Sprinter based) and were in the process of ramping up production to 21 units

[markopolo]

September 2016 Class B Shipment stats have been published on RVIA's site: The Recreation Vehicle Industry Association: RVIA Main Site Home

Shipments were up 51.3% compared to last September!

Sept 2016 Class B Shipments.JPG

Shipments are up 25.1% YTD

Fantastic year for Class B builders so far! Looks like year end totals could exceed 4,000 units shipped.

[gregmchugh]

It seems clear why Tiffin is moving into the Class C market with the Class A market not expanding much at all...

[MsNomer]

Unless there is a specific health issue, there is no reason we can't be active well into our 70’s and 80's. Until that specific health issue stops us, we will keep on hiking and climbing. The van will make that easier.

[droadrunner]

I should have noted that I asked if Airstream was considering building a Class B on a Transit, Chev or Promaster chassis. Seems no such plans are in the works regretably. I am looking for a replacement for my Ford E350 based Airstream B190, but not at 120K to 165K. Guess I'll continue looking at other manufactures.

[Boxster1971]

Originally Posted by droadrunner

I should have noted that I asked if Airstream was considering building a Class B on a Transit, Chev or Promaster chassis. Seems no such plans are in the works regretably. I am looking for a replacement for my Ford E350 based Airstream B190, but not at 120K to 165K. Guess I'll continue looking at other manufactures.

You might try looking for a used Airstream Avenue, that were built on Chevy van. They only stopped making them a few years ago.

http://www.colonialairstream.com/air...avenue-rv.html



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[droadrunner]

Thanks for the response. I have been keeping an eye out for them. They don't seem to come on the market very often. I did look at one in central PA a little while back. Dealer was quite proud of the unit. I had to walk away and leave his pride intact��

[Marley]

Chevy/GM needs to get back in the game here.

[booster]

Originally Posted by Marley

Chevy/GM needs to get back in the game here.

It is almost like they are sitting back and watching how it shakes out, and in the interim they are at capacity providing vans to the "buy American old school crowd". There are lots of tradesmen that like the body on frame, easy to work on or get fixed vans, like the Express, so they probably can ride it out for a long time without major downsides. It will be very interesting to see what they decide to do once they make a move!

[Davydd]

Originally Posted by Marley

Chevy/GM needs to get back in the game here.

Never going to happen unless they come up with a Eurovan style. Only Roadtrek has hung onto the current Chevy van. Everyone else has dropped it. I bet Hymer may rethink its future as well.

[Boxster1971]

GM sells an Opel/Vauxhall van in Europe that has long been rumored destined for USA market, but hasn't happened yet.
http://www.gmcconversionvans.com/gm-...north-america/


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[wincrasher]

Other's have threatened to bring their euro style vans to the US market - Hyundai in particular. Not sure there really is enough of a van market to justify even more players.

My bet is that GM plans to squeeze a few more years out of the old Chevy Express as the budget priced alternative. I have seen a few examples of their euro-style minivan on the street. It seems to compare well to the others in that market - there are alot of players there for sure, but I suspect there are far more customers interested in those smaller vans.

RV manufacturers are only going to commit to so many different platforms. I'm amazed that they are seeming to move to three - Sprinter, Promaster & Transit. I had figured they would stick with just two, as the costs to support so many must be significant.

[gregmchugh]

I never quite understood the predictions that the Transit would not be used for Class B vans by the major manufacturers. It seems to me that in the long term the Transit Class B vans will outsell the Sprinter. Daimler said when they announced the plan to build the new factory in SC that the plant was to meet the projected sales of over 70,000 Sprinters over here but it seems likely that they will only reach 30,000 this year. Once the Transit entered the market and took a dominating sales lead with likely sales of 140,000 this year, the growth in Sprinter sales has been modest at best.

I just don't see any way for the Sprinter to stay ahead of the Transit in the long term. Too many customers are going to prefer a top selling van from a domestic manufacturer with a best in class gasoline engine and a strong dealer and service network. At the high end of the market where the Mercedes may have some allure as a "luxury van" it may stay in the lead but for the average buyer I think the Class B market will go to the Transit and Promaster and we will see what comes from GM.

Will a new model Sprinter with a gasoline engine option and built in SC to reduce the costs of the chicken tax improve sales, probably, but there is no way to get anywhere near the sales of the Transit, maybe they can beat the Promaster which also has more sales than the Sprinter. Maybe the Metris will end up being the big seller out of the SC plant, not the Sprinter...

[booster]

There is also another possibility, that is totally unprovable. US tradesmen and RV folks like the V8 gas power of the old school vans. Perhaps GM is waiting until they have an engine that can equal that performance, but is not a gas guzzling V8? Why get into a market where the Ecoboost is going to make you look wimpy?

[gregmchugh]

The Chevy definitely has the edge in towing capacity...

And the Promaster is pretty feeble, at least on the Zion the towing capacity is less than 2000 lb...

[Marley]

I had heard from a dealer that a really good twin turbo diesel V6 was on the way from GMC for trucks...but that was 2 years ago...

Also the Opel/GM eurovan may appeal to smaller, or new, RV builders as a way to differentiate - it would have to be on par or better than what is out there now. I really think Class B's will take off here but the pricing is high still.

I would buy a GM Class B right now if the roof height was higher - that is a deal breaker at the $120k mark.

[markopolo]

September 2016 Class B Sales stats have been posted on RV Business: SSI: ‘B’ Sales Up 2.2% for Sept., Grow 13.7% YTD | RV Business

Sales were up 2.2% compared to last September.

Following two strong months for Class B motorhome sales, registrations were flat in September, up 2.2%, while the segment showed a 13.7% gain year-to-date.

Here's the Class B market share breakdown:

July 2016
Winnebago Industries Inc. 35.3% market share.
Roadtrek Motorhomes Inc. 28.2% market share.
Thor Industries Inc. 20.1% market share.
Pleasure-Way 10.8%

August 2016
Winnebago Industries Inc. 35.2% market share.
Erwin Hymer Group North America 28.7% market share.
Thor Industries Inc. 19.9% market share.
Pleasure-Way 10.3%

September 2016
Winnebago Industries Inc. 34.7% market share.
Erwin Hymer Group North America 28.8% market share.
Thor Industries Inc. 20% market share.
Pleasure-Way 10%

Very steady numbers.

[markopolo]

October 2016 Class B Shipment stats have been published on RVIA's site: The Recreation Vehicle Industry Association: RVIA Main Site Home

Shipments were up 13.5% compared to last October.

October 2016 Class B Shipments.JPG

Shipments are up 24% YTD

I'm not sure if the year end total will make it to 4,000 units but it's still a great year.