Class B Market Share, Sales and Shipments

[booster]

Originally Posted by Davydd

In that year there has been another 3-4 million Baby Boomer retirees. The 1.1% increase does not speak well for the RV industry or Class Bs. "Value based customers" to me speaks to the unprepared retirees and the health of the economy. To me the RV industry is the canary in the cage that might be reflecting on something the general economic numbers aren't reflecting yet.

Roadtrek's percentage continues to fall. I don't know if that is because of value based customers or the fact they continue to hold on and market Chevys that everyone else dropped and the value line has migrated to Euro vans (Promaster) which Winnebago has had a decidedly market edge in promotion, awareness, design and price, IMO.

I think I would not say that someone who can afford $80K for a class B, and has the funds to travel with it is an "unprepared retiree". If you apply the very common retirement planner 8X your salary needed to be saved by 67 years old, that would put an $60K earner at $480K saved and be considered pretty well prepared. A $100K earner would have $800K. Very many with either of those amounts would be very hesitant and probably irresponsible to spend 25-40% of their savings on a very expensive van, as that goes right off the beginning of retirement and removes that money from future appreciation gains. Even an $80K van is going to be prohibitive to a lot folks who saved well, but didn't have the larger incomes needed to build six figure plus nest eggs. I am sure that is why we see lots of questions here about getting more reasonably priced used vans.

IMO, if you have saved enough to buy a "value" priced class b without shorting you retirement fund enough to hurt future lifestyle, you have probably done a decent job of retirement preparation.

I think Winnebago will continue to expand it's lead, from the way it is going, unless someone is actually able to compete with them in the market they now seem to have all to themselves.

[gregmchugh]

I agree that no one will take the lead from Winnebago unless something drastic happens, they have more dealers, value pricing for new buyers, reasonable quality, and a large current customer base that might be looking to downsize.

Roadtrek seems to hold a rather solid 2nd position with a loyal customer base who will be repeat buyers and technology advances for new buyers looking for that and willing to pay for it.

[Davydd]

Originally Posted by booster

I think I would not say that someone who can afford $80K for a class B, and has the funds to travel with it is an "unprepared retiree".

Not saying that but statistics bear out fewer retirees percentage wise are entering the RV markets at any price. You can be well prepared but if you don't have a pension, and especially a COLA pension, and rely only on your nest egg and Social Security you are not going to enter in on big ticket items. Pensions are fast becoming history.

[gregmchugh]

It is very difficult to convince young people that they need to start building their retirement savings when they are young if they really want to be able to match the benefits received under the traditional pension systems. I recall that most of the relatively high income young engineers at a tech company that had no traditional pension plan would not contribute the maximum into the company savings plan and even took the company contribution out each year to buy their latest toys. I could not convince them that they were at the point in their lives where they had the most disposable income so it was the best time to start building the fund for retirement. I guess they didn't want to hear advice from someone who was over 30 and married with kids and paying a mortgage...

[tropicallie]

Max out retirement contributions for 25 of the 30 years of contributions? check. Mortgage free ? check. credit card debt free? check Cash purchased car and boat? check. Two college grad kids with no student loans? check. Cash purchased new "value based" Travato? OMG. Doomed to a retirement of cat food cuisine!

[Bruceper]

Pensions may be gone, but for many a mortgage free home is their retirement vehicle. Retire, sell, buy RV/Boat/Car/Whatever.

[BBQ]

.

...besides, a Class B holds up its value better than any car you can buy.

[VaVet96]

Originally Posted by tropicallie

Max out retirement contributions for 25 of the 30 years of contributions? check. Mortgage free ? check. credit card debt free? check Cash purchased car and boat? check. Two college grad kids with no student loans? check. Cash purchased new "value based" Travato? OMG. Doomed to a retirement of cat food cuisine!

Ditto! Was just about to write the same thing - including the Travato! Nice when a plan comes together.

[wincrasher]

It think the majority of people go for value. They want some tech, but not bleeding edge stuff. Most people I know think $80k for ANY RV is a colossal amount of money for such a thing. No matter the quality perception, the low price leader is going to have the majority of sales. From the latest figures, it looks like Pleasure Way is the one with eroding share. Their middle-of-the-road approach with modest tech improvements and price increases is not really working. Same with Roadtrek and their all-in approach on tech. There is too much of a premium on their prices - people are NOT cross shopping an Era and a CS.

As far as seeing the future, the data is a mixed bag. Yes, lots of boomers retiring every day. Also data showing mostly poor retirement savings. But also lots of inherited wealth, as well as small business owners retiring and letting their kids run the business and expecting a still healthy income. There is also the fact that many folks buy new RVs late in life, and they end up with health or death issues a few years in, and there is a ton of resulting inventory in the used market. In many cases new competes with slightly used - especially in the Class A space. I don't see that as much of a case in the Class B market - without the severe depreciation, there is not as much spread between used and new. Also, anecdotally at least, length of ownership seems to be longer - there just isn't a lot on the used market that is fairly new, and is mostly older stuff.

[Davydd]

Pleasure-way lost their very popular Ford Excel wide body model and have been pushing those buyers to their newer Class Cs like the Plateau XL. I think they are going the way Leisure Travel Vans went and concentrate on the small Class Cs which are growing more than Class Bs. Their market share may very well go down. On the other hand they were not included in these reports a couple of years ago. I surmise they were in the less than 10% and ignored as is a lot of companies.

[BBQ]

.

I am surprised Pleasure-Way market share is so low.
They have the best joinery work of all the builders; they use solid maple wood for frames, no plastic veneers, no MDF, no MDO, Corian countertop, no staples anywhere, 3/4" plywood instead of 1/2".

People are price sensitive; most people can't tell good workmanship from bad.

20 yr old Pleasure-Way or Roadtreks going strong and are still commanding good prices,
but you don't see many old Winnebago around.

[Boxster1971]

Just looking at the total numbers it is obvious that towables are the answer for most folks to satisfy occasional use of an RV. Buying a motorhome of any kind to have it sit around unused is expensive. That is one of the reasons I chose a eight passenger B-van as it is a multi-purpose vehicle for my use.

[wincrasher]

Originally Posted by BBQ

.

I am surprised Pleasure-Way market share is so low.
They have the best joinery work of all the builders; they use solid maple wood for frames, no plastic veneers, no MDF, no MDO, Corian countertop, no staples anywhere, 3/4" plywood instead of 1/2".

People are price sensitive; most people can't tell good workmanship from bad.

20 yr old Pleasure-Way or Roadtreks going strong and are still commanding good prices,
but you don't see many old Winnebago around.

You don't see old Winnebago Class B's because there weren't any - they didn't make them until 2009. They did make the Rialtas (if you consider that a B) in the 90's and there are lots of them still around. There are also tons of their class C's and Class A's going all the way back to the 70's - I see them all the time.

Fine wood joinery is not quality. It's alot of weight end extra costs though.
Probably the most sought after older class B - the Xplorer wide body - doesn't have any fine joinery in it. Laminated cabinet faces, staples and chip board. Still people get $30-40k for them.

[Scottbaldassari]

Originally Posted by BBQ

.

I am surprised Pleasure-Way market share is so low.
They have the best joinery work of all the builders; they use solid maple wood for frames, no plastic veneers, no MDF, no MDO, Corian countertop, no staples anywhere, 3/4" plywood instead of 1/2".

People are price sensitive; most people can't tell good workmanship from bad.

20 yr old Pleasure-Way or Roadtreks going strong and are still commanding good prices,
but you don't see many old Winnebago around.

Not to diminish pleasure-way in any way, but I had a twenty year old sportsmobile that had plenty of staples, laminates, and particle board. I put over 200,000 miles and real fulltime use on it, and if it wasn't working on its third transmission, I'd probably still be driving it. I'm not a fan of particle board, but if kept dry (which it SHOULD be in a van), and built correctly, it will last a long while. The furniture in my old unit was strong as ever (I can't say the same about the fabrics and carpeting). Actually everything about it (appliances, plumbing, electrical etc) was still working perfectly. Using expensive materials is not necessarily the same thing as build "quality".

[markopolo]

June 2016 Class B Shipment stats have been published on RVIA's site: The Recreation Vehicle Industry Association: RVIA Main Site Home

Shipments are up 38.4% compared to last June!

June 2016 Class B Shipments.JPG

Shipments are up 16.4% YTD

It's looking like another great year for Class B's and RV's in general.

From RV Business:
RVIA: Best 6-Month Shipment Total Since 1977 | RV Business

RVIA: Best 6-Month Shipment Total Since 1977

[gregmchugh]

Seems the predictions by some (you know who you are) that the market would not continue to increase for long and was going to head south are not quite realized as yet...

Anyone care to update their predictions on the date of the coming downturn

[markopolo]

RV loans look to be good business for lenders:

First quarter 2016 report on delinquencies: Consumer Delinquencies Fall in 7 of 11 Categories in First Quarter

RV loan delinquencies fell from 0.96 percent to 0.92 percent.

If it is fairly easy to get financing and the delinquency rate is low then things should keep going on this upward trend.

Interest rates would be a key factor but it seems unlikely that the cost of borrowing will go up much if at all (near term).

[Boxster1971]

Just an observation from the driver's seat - I've seen more B-vans during our travels this year then ever before.


- - Mike
2013 Airstream Interstate from 2012 Sprinter 3500 tall & long

[bobojay]

Originally Posted by Boxster1971

Just an observation from the driver's seat - I've seen more B-vans during our travels this year then ever before.


- - Mike
2013 Airstream Interstate from 2012 Sprinter 3500 tall & long

Yes, way more for us

[Davydd]

I still say the figures are not all that encouraging given the Baby boomers retiring in record numbers at over 3 million per year since 2011 at 65 or 2008 drawing social security. Class Bs are still under 7% of the motorhome market and just a way less than 1% blip over the entire RV market. In effect, the popularity is not really growing and the Class C market is still attracting 7X as many buyers. It remains a rather niche market beating out only truck campers. I don't know why anyone worries about it. If you like Bs, enjoy your status, your uniqueness and your freedom. At least you aren't a wanna B like so many Class Cers like to imagine themselves.

BTW, I just got back from a northern Minnesota trip to the Canadian border. I saw a couple of Bs on the road and none other than ours in the Friday night we stayed in the 300 site Grand Marais Municipal CG. There were more truck campers around mainly because they can trail bigger loads and can launch boats easier in the many northern Minnesota lakes since they can back into the boat ramp waters. Bs do seem to be more prolific in certain areas, mostly wilderness areas where campgrounds and roads are more restrictive. I see more in the western states than the eastern states. Of course, if you want to see lots of Bs in one place, plan on going to B rallies and socials where they congregate. We do three or four every year. Gives you an impression there are more.

In a couple of months there will be more members on Facebook Pursuing Pork Tenderloin Sandwiches prevalent in only three states than members of most all the Facebook Class B groups.