Corona Virus

[booster]

I have wondered since the beginning of all this just how accurate any of the metrics are that are base on the number of new cases. This would also include the Rt calculation on that particular chart. Without widespread full population sampling testing, there is no way to know how many new cases there are as many are the low symptom infections that nobody ever counts because they don't know about them.


Right now, there may not be a really decent, relatively accurate way to know what is really happening. Hospitalizations might be more accurate as long as the different areas use similar admitting criteria, but still not great, I think.


A chart like the one shows that compares states that have very large testing per population differences really doesn't tell us much, I fear, at least for comparing areas. Trends within a given state might be OK for telling up or down as long as the testing hasn't changed, though.

[jrobe]

Agree with Booster's skepticism. Any current trends are also related to fairly good public behavior and patience. You can see now though that this will not last much longer for a significant percentage of the population. We are not a very patient people. There is probably even 30%+ of the population that doesn't even believe there is a risk (all just fake news). This virus will be far more patient than the people and will just patiently wait for more susceptible hosts to expose themselves. Unfortunately, this likely won't end till there is an effective vaccine.

The practical question is whether we can safely travel and use our RV's in the midst of an active pandemic. It is pretty hard to travel and still isolate. I remember one medical study that showed that cough and sneeze particles traveled and remained suspended up to 30 ft away. It is not even as much fun when you have to avoid other people, busier tourist areas, restaurants, etc.. It is a tough situation.

[Winston]

Originally Posted by jrobe

This virus will be far more patient than the people

That's very quotable. Nice insight.

[GeorgeRa]

We all are hoping that vaccine will end this pandemic but based on this recently published study level of virus mutations could make development of high efficacy vaccine difficult. Time will tell, but we could be forced to live under major restrictions for a while.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/scie...-chinese-study

[booster]

Originally Posted by GeorgeRa

We all are hoping that vaccine will end this pandemic but based on this recently published study level of virus mutations could make development of high efficacy vaccine difficult. Time will tell, but we could be forced to live under major restrictions for a while.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/scie...-chinese-study

Very true, flu vaccines tend to have less than stellar prevention rates.


Our best hope is that that as the virus ages and evolves it move to the less contagious and lethal side and not to the more lethal side like the 2018 second wave virus evolution was.

[MobileCabin]

A couple less positive comments. The first is if one wanted their state to look healthy, the easiest way is to minimize collection of reportable data. Just don't test your population and keep your health care system to a minimum. The other is a mutating virus will be of more interest to our for profit health care companies. Instead of a one time vaccine, there may be a need for a new one each year. That would be of more interest to those companies.

I think that states like NY, NJ, CT, MA and WA will have more data collected and then reported than other states. To a first approximation they may represent a more accurate distribution of the virus impact on the population so I try to track them. As far as potential need for periodic new vaccines, it will be good for NJ.

[Davydd]

It is not a flu but more a corona virus like the common cold, SARS and MERS and those viruses have never had a vaccine developed. 18 months is just the accepted norm to develop a vaccine but no guarantee. I hope it just disappears.

[avanti]

Moderators' note:
Please let's not drift away from B-van, or at least RV-related topics.

[@Michael]

Originally Posted by jrobe

The practical question is whether we can safely travel and use our RV's in the midst of an active pandemic. It is pretty hard to travel and still isolate.

That this can come on suddenly is also a factor. To suddenly become severely ill while in a campervan camped in a campground several days drive from home could end up being an unfun experience. You are in a hospital miles from home, your travel partner can't visit you, but cannot leave the area either.

That would be a bad day.

[Davydd]

Getting ill and confined to a hospital over a 1,000 miles from home while on the road I've experienced already. I don't know if that worries me anymore. You can't control that and if it happens it happens, and you don't go on the road if it is a concern.

What is more troubling is campgrounds closed or restricted and RVers vying for too few spots. Another problem might be locals not welcoming RVers. I can see more constraints in boondocking. Bottom line is it is not going to be easy especially in the first half of the summer.

Texas opened up its state parks again but it did not open up its camping. Is that going to be the norm?

Another issue is whether the RV industry survives intact. Many people unemployed or furloughed are drawing down their savings whether they go back to work or not. I would think a lot of people will look at their priorities and forego RVing regardless if they have the money. Too soon to tell. The opposite scenario. If working at "home" meaning anywhere, it could spark more people getting on the road and of course that puts more people competing for fewer spots. Lots of unknowns.

[booster]

It is also probably too early to conclude that the early opening states will stay that way. If they have a major second wave resurgence, like many experts fear, they could go back into lockdown and trap you there, and they may ultimately be the latter ones to get truly open in the long term.


Only time will tell.

[InterBlog]

The new magnetic signs came in for my van - one for the rear barn door and one for the driver's side.

As well as having the potential cross-continent personal travel predicament described in the thread above, I am also an environmental health and safety professional. People in my field are very aware that it’s up to us to set behavioral precedents in our industrial work environments. Let's face it - a large number of Americans will eventually get COVID-19. But we still need to deploy every reasonable spread-limiting administrative and engineering control in the short term. If we don’t do that, neither will others.

There was one day last week when I was parked in a client's parking lot doing site work out of the van, and employees kept walking by expressing candid surprise at the sight of this message, not understanding that I was inside the van working. It was pretty funny overhearing their unvarnished reactions.

[peteco]

Originally Posted by InterBlog

The new magnetic signs came in for my van - one for the rear barn door and one for the driver's side.

As well as having the potential cross-continent personal travel predicament described in the thread above, I am also an environmental health and safety professional. People in my field are very aware that it’s up to us to set behavioral precedents in our industrial work environments. Let's face it - a large number of Americans will eventually get COVID-19. But we still need to deploy every reasonable spread-limiting administrative and engineering control in the short term. If we don’t do that, neither will others.

There was one day last week when I was parked in a client's parking lot doing site work out of the van, and employees kept walking by expressing candid surprise at the sight of this message, not understanding that I was inside the van working. It was pretty funny overhearing their unvarnished reactions.

I wonder if some people interpreted the sign as indicating the van occupants have Covid and thus people should stay away. Any statement can be misinterpreted, and probably more-so when the situation is tense. Be careful, and thanks for your work.

[Bud]

Originally Posted by peteco

I wonder if some people interpreted the sign as indicating the van occupants have Covid and thus people should stay away. Any statement can be misinterpreted, and probably more-so when the situation is tense. Be careful, and thanks for your work.

I agree, exactly. Nice work InterBlog.

Bud

[InterBlog]

Originally Posted by peteco

I wonder if some people interpreted the sign as indicating the van occupants have Covid and thus people should stay away. Any statement can be misinterpreted, and probably more-so when the situation is tense. Be careful, and thanks for your work.

Yes - I realized that it could be interpreted that way by people who are not made aware of the contractor context. I decided not to re-word because frankly, I don't see that ambiguity as a bad thing. A would-be thief might see that and decide not to break in. I can always hope.

[rvsprinterguy]

I almost pulled the trigger on a pair of similar magnetic signs, but I paused because of possible LEO attention. I'd hate to be on the road and forced into quarantine by an officer who misunderstood the message.

[InterBlog]

Originally Posted by rvsprinterguy

I almost pulled the trigger on a pair of similar magnetic signs, but I paused because of possible LEO attention. I'd hate to be on the road and forced into quarantine by an officer who misunderstood the message.

That is also a good point and I thought of that possibility, too. But if I get pulled over, I can explain the context. It has not happened yet, knock wood.

I'm not too worried about it, though. I think a lot of law enforcement would see that and even if they misinterpreted, they'd decide not to open the can of worms. They have bigger fish to fry. Right now for instance, law enforcement in greater Houston is engaging in a gloves-off open warfare with the county judge over masks. So far, they are digging in their heels and refusing to enforce a public mask-wearing order.

[Davydd]

Re: Wearing masks.

You can't fix stupid on both sides. People who don't wear masks especially in buildings or where there is close gatherings are taking a risk because I suspect the greater percentage of COVID-19 carriers than not are defiant.

On the other hand what a waste of manpower and endangerment to law enforcement to enforce people to wear a mask and fining people.

Texas says you have to wear a mask in the state parks. I think it is crazy walking the wooded trails with no one around with a mask. The buildings are closed. Camping is closed. Maybe a mask in the parking lots when coming and going.

[booster]

Originally Posted by Davydd

Re: Wearing masks.

You can't fix stupid on both sides. People who don't wear masks especially in buildings or where there is close gatherings are taking a risk because I suspect the greater percentage of COVID-19 carriers than not are defiant.

On the other hand what a waste of manpower and endangerment to law enforcement to enforce people to wear a mask and fining people.

Texas says you have to wear a mask in the state parks. I think it is crazy walking the wooded trails with no one around with a mask. The buildings are closed. Camping is closed. Maybe a mask in the parking lots when coming and going.

As davydd says, the mask thing is really mixed up, especially went you throw in the fact different masks protect different groups. Surgical masks and bandanas protect others, an N95 mask with an exhale port protects you but not others, a non ported N95 mask protects both sides but can be a lot of effort to breath.


In relation to traveling in an RV, we aren't going anywhere soon, but we will take day trips. We don't really leave the van at all except for gas and then wear a mask and gloves. Maybe a viewpoint if nobody around. Safe for everyone involved, I think, and can be expanded to wider amounts of contact, it we could get the non ported N95 masks to protect everyone, but right now we have to save them for the health workers as there is such a short supply.


Based on what I see around here in exurban, conservative, Minneapolis, areas, you can't rely on others to be responsible and have to take care of your own safety.

[markopolo]

I'd presume there's no return to normal life until there's a vaccine. The hope for this year and next is that effective treatments are discovered. That will permit a new normal way of life where the risk of overwhelming the health care system is near eliminated and life goes on with precautions like physical distancing and lots of washing hands etc. Increasing herd immunity will also permit some return to normalcy but that seems to be a long way off.

The article George posted was an eye-opener. One patient had three mutations of the virus in his system so it makes you wonder if full immunity is even possible.

Effective treatments would at least permit domestic travel via RV or otherwise so fingers crossed that comes soon.


Science & scientists will get us through this.