Corona Virus

[mumkin]

Of course, the sad fact that isn't stressed all that often is that there has never been an effective vaccine developed for human coronaviruses. (never for the mild common cold coronavirus or for SARS/MERS) Flu is a different virus branch.

Lots of people working on it around the world, hopefully they succeed sooner rather than later.

[InterBlog]

Originally Posted by MobileCabin

...
I think that states like NY, NJ, CT, MA and WA will have more data collected and then reported than other states. ....

Well, you'd be right about that.

NY just dropped the data on its first widespread round of antibody testing. The results suggest that as many as 2.7 million New Yorkers have had COVID-19. Twenty-one percent of New York City residents are showing antibodies.

If you don't find that shocking, consider that, as of yesterday, the U.S. *national* infection rate was estimated by the CDC at 802,583.

In other works, the infection estimate in New York by itself, based on antibody testing, is 3.4 times the *entire national estimate* based on live virus testing.

i.e., we have nooooo freakin' idea what's going on yet. Not even remotely.

[Boxster1971]

Originally Posted by InterBlog

Well, you'd be right about that.

NY just dropped the data on its first widespread round of antibody testing. The results suggest that as many as 2.7 million New Yorkers have had COVID-19. Twenty-one percent of New York City residents are showing antibodies.

If you don't find that shocking, consider that, as of yesterday, the U.S. *national* infection rate was estimated by the CDC at 802,583.

In other works, the infection estimate in New York by itself, based on antibody testing, is 3.4 times the *entire national estimate* based on live virus testing.

i.e., we have nooooo freakin' idea what's going on yet. Not even remotely.

Live virus vs. antibody testing is apples vs. oranges. Real questions remain about the efficacy of the antibody tests. You are right lots to learn about this yet.

I just want to get back on the road again. Had great trips planned for Minnesota in late May and Canadian Maritimes in September.

[Sensfan]

Originally Posted by Boxster1971

Live virus vs. antibody testing is apples vs. oranges. Real questions remain about the efficacy of the antibody tests. You are right lots to learn about this yet.
I just want to get back on the road again. Had great trips planned for Minnesota in late May and Canadian Maritimes in September.

Ditto on on the road again.
Off subject comment re a Maritime destination ... a real diamond for us was the 5 1/2 hour ferry trip from Souris, P.E.I. to the Magdalen Islands (Îles de la Madeleine), a small French Canadian populated archipelago in the Gulf of Saint Lawrence. There are hundreds of documented shipwrecks around it, with beautiful wild beaches and great seafood. Although it is officially part of the province of Quebec, most of its residents are descended Maritime Acadians (American Cajun cousins). You won't hear much english, if any, but not to worry, most locals speak english and love tourists ... lol. We would go again; mid-July is in our opinion prime time.

[RossWilliams]

Originally Posted by Boxster1971

Live virus vs. antibody testing is apples vs. oranges. Real questions remain about the efficacy of the antibody tests. You are right lots to learn about this yet.

I just want to get back on the road again. Had great trips planned for Minnesota in late May and Canadian Maritimes in September.

Likewise, but the campgrounds are (mostly) closed here in Minnesota and it seems unlikely Canada is going to open its borders to recreation users any time soon. I have a friend who has been going canoeing in Quetico every year for the last 40 years. He sees that string being broken this year.

[GeorgeRa]

Good straightforward summary by Bill Gates. https://www.gatesnotes.com/Health/Pa..._&WT.tsrc=BGEM

[Boxster1971]

Originally Posted by GeorgeRa

Good straightforward summary by Bill Gates. https://www.gatesnotes.com/Health/Pa..._&WT.tsrc=BGEM

Thanks George - I read the short version earlier today and watched Gates' interview with Colbert on the Late Show.

[InterBlog]

Originally Posted by Boxster1971

.... Had great trips planned for Minnesota in late May and Canadian Maritimes in September.

Maritime trip? You'd have to go through Nova Scotia to get to every destination other than New Brunswick, and Nova Scotia's lockdown is among the most severe of them.

At this point, they appear to have chosen the goal of total coronavirus annihilation, the end game for which I do not understand. Even if it were logistically achievable, the rest of Canada won't pay to support them in their seclusion at the expense of everyone else in the country, who must keep working if they are to keep eating. The present trajectory would only be successful if not a single non-resident of the province was ever allowed in without quarantining until a vaccine was globally available, which would probably take years, not the months that are being claimed. It's not sustainable. But meanwhile, no travel there.

[Boxster1971]

Originally Posted by InterBlog

Maritime trip? You'd have to go through Nova Scotia to get to every destination other than New Brunswick, and Nova Scotia's lockdown is among the most severe of them. . . . But meanwhile, no travel there.

But if they are still that lockdown in September we are all in serious trouble.

[InterBlog]

Originally Posted by Boxster1971

But if they are still that lockdown in September we are all in serious trouble.

Well, I don't know about all the rest of us, but THEY certainly would be in serious trouble.

Antibody testing offers are scaling up by the day. There is serious decoherence in the news media right now - lots of dire warnings about how having had COVID-19 and having antibodies does not guarantee immunity, they admonish --

-- but then in the very next breath --

"See, we need to not trust any of that antibody testing stuff and remain locked down until there is a vaccine."

Duh, if having the live virus does not confer immunity, then having a dose of attenuated virus will not either. That doesn't even rise to the sophistication of Biology 101 - that's elementary-school-caliber reasoning.

[Davydd]

Originally Posted by Boxster1971

But if they are still that lockdown in September we are all in serious trouble.

The Maritimes from my experience lockdown essentially for RV travelers around the middle of September anyway.

[markopolo]

That's correct and mostly due to students returning to school than the weather at that time of year IMO. In addition to families not vacationing at that time, most summer type activities are staffed by students on break so the season ends a few weeks premature. I suspect it's similar for some parts of the U.S. north east.


---------------------------


The warnings about having antibodies in ones system not guaranteeing immunity are important at this point in time. Hopefully ongoing studies will prove otherwise. It would be awful for someone to survive a first bout of the virus only to get infected again and spread the disease if it could have been avoided had they had only known they were still vulnerable.

I'm not hearing or seeing that we need to remain locked down until there is a vaccine. We could be years away from a vaccine if ever. I am hearing and seeing that places will open up as the situation becomes manageable. If an effective treatment (not a vaccine) emerges then that will permit a return to somewhat normal life.

We're 7 days with no new cases here in NB and some activities are resuming. If we can continue with no new cases or very few new cases then this approach could help other jurisdictions with their decision making.

It will only take one cluster of infection to lose control of this extremely infectious disease and we'll be back to essential activities only. Fingers crossed.

[NFRicaS]

Originally Posted by InterBlog

For those who may be traveling, or who may need to travel, more of these type news summaries are now popping up:

What To Know Before You Travel Across State Lines


I found it interesting that they are intercepting people at state lines, but some jurisdictions are not doing it on major freeways like the I-95. Well, crap, if you don't check I-95 in the northeast, what exactly has the effort accomplished?!

All of it strengthens my suspicion that there may be a logistical benefit to signalling one's intention by placing signage on one's vehicle, if travel must be undertaken. "THROUGH TRAVELER EN ROUTE TO [DESTINATION]" or some such may minimize unnecessary pull-overs by local police and staties.

EDIT: This summary (below) is easily and quickly worked up, given that I know the route by heart and can plug it into GoogleMaps. I never stopped to consider how much time I spend in each state on this journey. Obviously there is sleep time involved as well, but these are the on-the-road travel times. Can you imagine being pulled over at even *some* of those state lines?! OMG, it would be a nightmare to do a bunch of those successively.

3.5 hours through Tennessee?? Wow....seems like it takes me like 4 days!! ��
Good info and suggestions, though...this will be my route next week...still bummed about Virginia’s camping ban....(yes, I know about the guy in Staunton)

[Boxster1971]

Originally Posted by Davydd

The Maritimes from my experience lockdown essentially for RV travelers around the middle of September anyway.

Yes - have heard that is an issue. Maritimes are a solid bucket list trip that I was really looking forward to finally doing.

But this was to be an initial hybrid trip. Using the van for travel/camping from Maryland to St Johns, NB. Then parking van at St. John's airport and joining a Roads Scholar bus tour along the Maritime coast. It is a fine dining tour with 2-night stays in coastal inns for 10 days.

Planning a summer camping trip in Maritimes for another year.

[NFRicaS]

Originally Posted by GallenH

Not sure. We're thinking of getting out in this next month. I figure that, on a short trip, the most contact I'd have would be gassing up. Could do that with food handlers gloves I suspect. But the rest would be relatively risk free. Recent information suggests that UV sunlight is helpful which makes my location in the desert perhaps more safe. But again, who knows. As jrobe says this could be bad. Little is known. Appears that the treatment is basically treat for other illnesses to increase the effectiveness of the immune system and perhaps respiratory aid. But there's no drug treatment as of yet. A bit frightening for those of us over 70. Hard to believe I'm THAT old. Stay safe.

Another option besides gloves are doggie bags!!

[booster]

Originally Posted by markopolo

Widespread mask use should or would lead to a fewer number of cases.

Reception of the virus:


Frequent hand washing correctly and glove use should or would also lead to a fewer number of cases.

A thing I have not been able to find is related to this, I think. Has anyone seem and tested data on the likely hood of contracting, or the severity of the disease if you do contract, based on the exposure intensity or size?



I would think knowing that would be interesting as it might allow a more realistic evaluation of the risks from different things as I would guess the dose received would be significantly different between exposure types. For instance a close proximity sneeze would give you a much larger hit than touching service that had been touched a while earlier.


Early on in this they were saying stay 3 feet apart and under fifteen minutes of contact, but as the distance increased the time period appears to have been eliminated. This would seem to mean that long time is not really a factor, but does that mean dose doesn't matter much?


When you start talking about RV travel, thinks like time of contact, exposure dose, and varied risk profiles probably get more important than around home as you would see lots more varied exposure risks.

[mumkin]

Originally Posted by InterBlog

The emerging evidence suggests that the predominant mode of transmission is not via touching surfaces - it's by exhaled droplets, especially while the mouth is open and actively speaking (even if not coughing).

If this conclusion is correct, then the measure that will result in the largest reduction in transmission is the wearing of masks and face coverings.

Except that what I have read from many health professionals around the world is the exact opposite. I have read well-respected medical sources in the last day or so that suggest that 90+% are passed by the hands. That same source said that a virus flying through the air loses strength very quickly. Because the general public is mostly uninformed about how to use masks and gloves properly, they are probably as likely to catch it than without both. In fact, one of the main reasons that they are suggesting masks for all is to try to keep you from touching your nose or mouth. We are probably a year out from definite answers to these questions and more importantly, immunity length.

Virus load seems to clearly effect severity based on what is happening to the medical staffs. Especially those that work in the ER with intubing the most ill. They are right in the face of the ill person. Most of the fatalities of younger victims tend to be medical staff working with the sickest and thus liable to get a much higher virus load... repeatedly if they make any mistakes in procedures.

For those of us who need to travel in our rigs, I recommend checking out the videos online of proper mask and glove usage. I was fortunate that as this hit, I was having low level radiation treatments on a little basal cell on the end of my nose. (Of course... pick the most inconvenient place to treat) Restriction to the medical offices soon came into effect, and I was given a lesson by the staff member of the proper usage of both... and provided with them every visit before I entered. (and you waited in your vehicle as onlly one patient was allowed in at a time)

[booster]

Nice weather in Minnesota yesterday, so we decided to take a cruise drive in the Roadmaster for fun and confirm all good after reassembly. A couple of hours and looped through some nice areas around Taylors Falls, never getting out of the car.


Wayside rests and overlooks in nice areas, as well a parking lots in places with takeout food, etc were packed with people. Essentially no distancing or masks to be seen. I think that the protests and public figure assaults on the precautions is giving many people the idea that it is all over or never should have been in place.



If the medical experts are right we could well be in for a sooner than expected second wave of all this. Minnesota hasn't even hit peak yet so kind of disappointing to us.

[avanti]

Moderator's note:
I have deleted a number of recent posts because (a) they were not RV-related and/or (b) they were drifting toward the political.

I am trying to apply a liberal interpretation of "RV-related", but a strict one pertaining to politics. There are plenty of other places on the Net for general Covid discussions.

Thanks for your discretion and be safe.

[Davydd]

Going outside has its unintended consequences with people congregating in the few desirable places like flooding parks instead of just getting outside and walking dispersed maybe around their neighborhood. This is an article about Minneapolis' parks and the dilemma of this.

https://www.startribune.com/how-do-y...ing/569952752/

Excerpted from the article. Walkers on Bde Maka Ska six foot wide path three miles around the lake. There are miles of these kind of paths along several lakes, Minnehaha creek and the Mississippi river in Minneapolis and they are all crowded like this. People think ocean beaches are a problem?